Red Alert: Greenland

On Tuesday, the leaders of Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom released an unprecedented joint statement saying “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”  If you’re a time traveler from 2015, you may be thinking “well, of course.  Why would anyone, especially Europe’s most powerful leaders, feel the need to make such a statement.”

Well, sit down, Marty McFly, because I have some bad news for you. You might want to check out for the next decade. Things haven’t been great.  

US Vice President JD Vance in Greenland in March 2025 (New York Times)

Hot off the heels of Venezuela, the Trump administration is again making veiled threats about Greenland.  Just before Christmas, Trump appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry to be “special envoy” to Greenland, saying the United States has to have it for national security reasons, definitely not the materials underneath it.

But European leaders are not convinced the United States will accept the simple fact Greenland has had close ties with Europe for over 1000 years, or would seek only a peaceful annexation.  After Maduro’s capture on January 3, many Europeans are expecting a direct attack, with the Danish Prime Minister going so far as to say “If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops”, including NATO.  

What’s behind Trump’s infatuation with the world’s largest island, that’s largely covered in ice and is home to only 56,000 people?  Trump is framing it as a national security issue. That claim fails because Greenland is already Danish territory, and Denmark is, as alluded to above, a member of NATO. The United States already operates a Space Base (which sounds like a made up term, but isn’t) and has had a presence there since the end of World War II.  

Territorial Claims in the Arctic (International Boundaries Research Unit/Durham University)

Greenland does have strategic value in that it straddles the North Pole, and depending on whose claims you believe, Russia. However it’s evident that Trump doesn’t consider Russia as much of a threat as other western leaders.  Regardless of what Trump has said, the real value Greenland has lies beneath its shrinking ice sheet.  The island sits on vast amounts of rare earth elements such as graphite, lithium, copper, nickel, zinc, gold, and iron plus the possibility of large oil and natural gas reserves.  As hostilities in Venezuela quickly pivoted to protecting America from illegal narcotics to funding the occupation with Venezuelan oil revenue, European leaders are understandably on edge.

When Trump first started talking about Greenland in early 2025,  many wrote it off as one of his many random remarks designed to generate headlines rather than any concrete policy. However, over the past year those remarks have been bulwarked by high profile visits and increasingly hostile remarks by high ranking members of the administration.  

This actually lets us in Trump’s mind.  It reinforces the idea that everything is transactional.  To him, it’s just another real estate deal.  The offer is on the table with zero understanding of the long term ramifications. 

This administration simply does not care about diplomacy.  It’s might equals right.  Complex questions about Danish governance, indigenous rights, and the largest ramifications on European alliances are simply ignored and replaced by threats. When Denmark rejected the idea, Trump responded with petulance, canceling a state visit. That reaction revealed the underlying flaw. Strategic policy requires patience and respect for partners. Trump interpreted refusal as an insult. Power, in his view, flows from submission, not consent. That worldview makes sustained cooperation impossible and turns allies into liabilities.

The Greenland episode also exposed Trump’s misunderstanding of American strength. The United States has influence in the Arctic because of treaties, alliances, scientific cooperation, and long term presence. Those tools are slow and often invisible. They lack the drama Trump craves. He prefers gestures that look decisive even when they hollow out credibility.  Style over substance.  

Arctic Sea Routes to and From Europe (European Space Agency)

As the Arctic continues to melt, Greenland’s position will become even more important as it sits along new shipping lanes that will dramatically reduce shipping times from Asia to Europe and the US East Coast.  Great Power pressures will intensify, but the US already has a partner in the EU and Denmark.  However, Trump simply does not see that because his name isn’t written across the ice.  He doesn’t care about the relationships that would allow him to get what he wants. 

Trump only wants the “stuff”.  The relationships are expendable.